NASCAR at Dover odds, key stats, bets to consider: Three drivers to fade in Monday’s matchups

There is no other track in NASCAR like Dover International Speedway. The 1-mile concrete monitor in Delaware includes high banks and several grooves, similar to Bristol’s half-mile design but with high-banked straightaways.
For handicapping purposes, Dover is a unique track, but outcomes from Bristol should be taken into account, in addition to tracks that have used the 750-horsepower, no-aero duct bundle this season (more on that below).
It doesn’t seem to matter where NASCAR races this season, Kyle Busch has been among those top-3 favorites, and he is the No. 1 power-rated catalyst for oddsmakers. Busch isn’t only directing the Cup Series in victories (three) this year, but his 10 straight top-10 finishes to begin the season has just been achieved by four other drivers, rather than since Morgan Shepherd at 1990.
Busch is a whopping 3/1 to win Sunday’s Gander RV 400 (1 p.m. CT, FS1) and hard to fade considering he’s 17 top-10s, including 12 top-5s, in his final 28 series begins at Dover.
Update: The Gander RV 400 was postponed until Monday at 11 a.m. CT on FS1
Chase Elliott, a week’s winner in Talladega, and slumping contender Kyle Larson would be the only two drivers to have their futures odds to win the Cup Series championship corrected this week. Both drivers are worth fading from the matchups (listed below), nevertheless.
Elliott is the harder market considering he is the most recent winner in the Monster Mile and has five top-5 finishes in six string races in Dover, but Chevrolet has been very disappointing this year outside the superspeedways and we love to fade drivers off wins.
Larson, who hasn’t won a race at the Cup level since the 2017 fall race in Richmond, moved from 20/1 into 25/1 to win November’s title. Larson opened the season 7/1, but enters this weekend’s race in Dover sitting beyond the playoff standings at 21st. Talladega’s crash marked the third time in six races Larson has wrecked from a race. Other outcomes throughout this span include a 12th-place revealing at Fontana, 18th-place in Martinsville and 19th at Bristol.
Dover rules bundle, recent results
For the fifth time this season, Cup drivers will race using an engine-producing 750-horsepower and no aero ducts. The four previous races have been Phoenix, Martinsville, Bristol, and Richmond, with Joe Gibbs Racing winning three and Brad Keselowski top 446 of all 500 laps at Martinsville.
Recent Dover winners
2019 autumn: Chase Elliott
2018 spring: Kevin Harvick
2017 autumn: Kyle Busch
2017 spring: Jimmie Johnson
2016 fall: Martin Truex, Jr..
Curious to win Gander RV 400 at Dover
Opening odds Supplied by Westgate SuperBook
Kyle BUSCH 3/1
Kevin HARVICK 4/1
Martin TRUEX JR 8/1
Joey LOGANO 8/1
Clint BOWYER 12/1
Kurt BUSCH 14/1
Chase ELLIOTT 12/1
Denny HAMLIN 14/1
Aric ALMIROLA 18/1
Ryan BLANEY 20/1
Kyle LARSON 20/1
Erik JONES 25/1
Jimmie JOHNSON 20/1
Daniel SUAREZ 50/1
Austin DILLON 80/1
Ricky STENHOUSE JR 100/1
Ryan NEWMAN 100/1
Alex BOWMAN 100/1
Paul MENARD 100/1
William BYRON 200/1
Chris BUESCHER 300/1
Darrell WALLACE JR 300/1
Daniel HEMRIC 300/1
Ryan PREECE 500/1
Ty DILLON 1000/1
Michael McDOWELL 2000/1
David RAGAN 2000/1
FIELD (others) 1000/1
Notable NASCAR betting matchups at Dover
Opening odds provided by Westgate SuperBook
Kyle BUSCH -125
Kevin HARVICK +105
Denny HAMLIN -110
Kurt BUSCH -110
Kevin HARVICK -140
Kurt BUSCH -110
Chase ELLIOTT -110
Joey LOGANO -110
Martin TRUEX JR -110
Joey LOGANO -110
Martin TRUEX JR -110
Clint BOWYER -110
Kurt BUSCH -110
NASCAR at Dover stakes to consider Opening odds Supplied by Westgate SuperBook
Hamlin (-110) over Elliott
We said fading Elliott above and also our pick to beat him is Hamlin, who’s enjoying a resurgent season. Hamlin has completed fifth all four races with Sunday’s package and contains five top-10 endings in the last six Dover races, including a runner-up past fall.
Truex Jr. (-110) over Keselowski
Truex has five top-10s and four top-5s in the last six Dover races, leading 387 laps at that moment. Truex also finished second at Phoenix on this package and won at Richmond after leading a race-high 186 laps. Even though Keselowski dominated Martinsville, he has been 19th in Phoenix, 18th at Bristol, and seventh at Richmond.
Daniel Suarez (-110) over Jimmie Johnson
How the mighty have fallen. Seven-time winner Johnson contributes to the site of the latest victory, where he is the sport’s all-time winningest driver with 11 victories. But Johnson is 16th in the series standings and has struggled the last two seasons. Suarez calls Dover his favorite track, and he’s averaging a 6.7 finish over four starts. The Mexico native possesses the fourth-best typical running posture among active drivers in Dover and contains the third-most laps at the top 15.

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